High Prices are Bad for Business

As all of you know, the price of biodiesel at the pump has hit record highs. Over the past few months by phone, email, blog responses, and in person, most people have been asking me "why?"

It is a complicated issue - take a look at previous posts - but there is one large piece that I've been leaving out: the impact high prices have had on SeQuential.

On the financial side of things, we have lost volume and customers. Some people are driving less and others have gone back to petroleum fuels. The price increases have reflected the rising cost of biodiesel - not rising profit margins. The lost volume means SeQuential is struggling.

On the other side of things, I have heard disbelief at the speed and intensity of price increases; questions on price gouging and comparisons to big oil have been made. This stings - SeQuential is a very small company (there are six of us in full-time administrative positions); both as a company and as individuals, we are committed to making cleaner burning, renewable fuels available. This is not an easy task given who and what we are up against and the only way we can do this is with help from our customers.

We are in business to make a difference: to move towards energy independence, to clean up the air, to give people a choice when they fuel their cars. Stay with the right biofuels. When you fuel up with SeQuential, you are supporting a different kind of fuel and a different kind of fuel company: local, cleaner, better.

Fuel Prices

I've gotten many questions on what goes into the price - as you all know, the price of both petroleum fuel and biofuel has been going up and up. (While writing this article, the price of a barrel of crude oil has hit $118.28, a price far higher than forecasted.)

SeQuential has received numerous inquiries to why this is happening, and like everything in the world, there are many factors that go into the equation. This is not meant to be a complete list, but an overview of some of the key influencers. Feel free to post any comments or questions!

Limited Supply
Without getting into a discussion on how much oil is left underground, there is a very real constraint on oil output: refinery capacity. Since 2004, refinery output worldwide has not increased.

Demand from Developing Countries
The demand for petroleum by developing countries, mainly China and India, has put a strain on the already limited supply of petroleum. Classic economics shows that when there is a supply-demand imbalance, prices raise.

Weak US Dollar
The US Dollar has been loosing value as compared to other world currencies. Since the US imports about 60% of its petroleum, the dollar is not able to buy as much petroleum as it used to.

Effect on Biofuel
Like it or not, the price of petroleum has an effect on absolutely everything in our lives, even the price of locally produced biofuel. Every day in Oregon, only 0.7% (0.007) of the total fuel used is biofuel. SeQuential sources products from companies that use biofuels as much as possible, but the reality is that most companies use petroleum fuel, tying us and our prices to the rises in the price of petroleum.

Effect on Food Prices
There have been many articles in the news as of late on how the growing use of biofuel has impacted the price of food worldwide. This is an issue that SeQuential takes very seriously; there is a wrong way and a right way to produce biofuels. Wherever possible, SeQuential uses recycled or locally grown products and the most efficient processes for fuel production.

Our sourcing principle:

• Best – regionally-produced from regionally-available feedstocks. Emphasis on waste products and recycled products.
• Better – regionally produced from domestically sourced feedstocks.
• Good – domestically produced from domestically sourced feedstocks.
• Unacceptable – biofuels that have a negative energy balance or are produced from imported feedstocks. (Brazilian soy or Malaysian palm oil.)

The effect of petroleum prices, currency imbalances, worldwide crop failures and growing demand of developing nations for meat (which requires large amounts of corn and other grains) has been largely overlooked. Given the relative small size of the biofuel industry, these other macroeconomic factors have a much larger influence. For more reading: NY Times.

SeQuential is committed to finding ways to avoid competing with food crops, such as using Used Cooking Oil or Canola and Camelina grown regionally in rotation with grass seed and other crops.

SeQuential Carbon Challenge: Earth Month 2008

In celebration of Earth Month (Earth Day is not enough!), SeQuential, along with local businesses, organizations, and the Mayor of Eugene Kitty Piercy, is issuing the first annual Carbon Challenge to the City of Eugene:

Cut carbon dioxide emissions by 1,000,000 pounds during April

This is an ambitious goal , but with everyone pulling together, we can make a huge difference!

Participating in the Carbon Challenge is easy - simply go to any of the following locations and fill out an entry form that describes how you are (or will) walk, bike, bus or use biofuels instead of driving on petroleum fuels, thereby cutting your carbon footprint.


Bike Friday
Hutch's Cycles
Revolution Cycles
Down to Earth Home & Garden
SeQuential Fuel Station Eugene


You can enter once per visit for the end of month raffle. The prizes are:

• A Tikit folding bicycle from Bike Friday and Hutch’s Cycles
• A commuter bike from Revolution Cycles
• One of three $50 fuel gift cards from SeQuential
• One of five one-month bus passes from Lane Transit District
• A vine maple sapling from Down to Earth Home & Garden.

We are using how much fuel?!

I was going to do a different sort of analysis about this... but the scale of these numbers just wowed me so I'll let them speak for themselves.

Oregon's 2006 consumption of petroleum fuel:
4,314,400 gallons per day of gasoline (source)
2,266,600 gallons per day of diesel (source)

Oregon's 2006 consumption of biofuel:
38,356 gallons per day of ethanol (source)
10,959 gallons per day of biodiesel (source, which is a estimate)


Now with that in mind, how much of this is actually being produced in Oregon?

Oregon's 2006 production of petroleum fuel:
121 gallons per day of production capacity (source, I don't know if this is actually being produced)

Oregon's 2008 production of biofuel:
405,479 gallons per day of ethanol (source)
7,547 gallons per day of biodiesel (source)

So... what is the take away message here? Only a fraction of the fuel we use in Oregon is made from biofuel, but the impact has been huge:

• Bringing fuel production back in state
• Giving farmers access to a new market
  
• Decreasing carbon dioxide emissions
  
• Proving that not only is there an alternative to petroleum fuel, there are thousands of people who want this alternative

Everyone who has chosen to fuel up with biofuel is part of this change; we are still at the beginnings of it, but there is nowhere to go but up from here!

Thought leaders piece; Where gas money goes

C3 Press [Carbon Constrained Communications] recently released their first issue of "Thought Leaders of the New Energy Economy", which included a piece by SeQuential CEO Dave Garten, as well as by leaders in other industries. Check it out here (255k pdf).

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The latest NACS (a gas station / convenience store association) magazine published some interesting facts regarding where money goes on a gallon of gas, using 2007 average prices.

• 58%: Crude Oil
• 17%: Refining
• 15%: Taxes
• 9%: Distribution and Retail (20% of which goes to credit card companies)
• 1%: store income

This is slightly misleading though, since taxes ($0.484 is Oregon + Federal tax), distribution and retail (a set few cents per gallon), and store income (a set few cents per gallon) are all fixed numbers that don't change with gas prices. Simply put, when you read of crude oil prices hitting all time highs, gas stations aren't making any more money, the people pulling oil out of the ground are.

For users of pure biofuel, the taxes, distribution and retail, and store income would all be about the same. I'm not sure how the rest of it goes, but my guess is that the raw materials (raw oil and other production inputs) would make up by far the largest percentage.

Follow-up on food prices

The New York Times published an interesting (and albeit disturbing) article about food prices and how they are going up because of demand and worldwide crop shortages. One quote pretty much sums it all up:

“Everyone wants to eat like an American on this globe."

As the lives of people in developing nations stabilize, they move away from "traditional" crops and import more food. Supply and high demand at work, plus a little drought and failed crops equals higher prices. America's high production and the weak dollar are also at play.

[As an aside, I just have to mention that biofuels were not once mentioned in this article.]

What is really disturbing, something that I haven't been able to internalize yet, are the comments about how cheap food is not going to be reality for much longer. As a child of the 80's, I've never seen high commodity food prices, and I know that I've been taking this for granted.

Beans and rice have always been cheap, because they are beans and rice...

If these basic commodity prices go up, what happens to everyone who is depending on cheap food to feed their families? What happens to people who gave up farming because they can import cheaper grains?

This really is one more argument for local: take control of your food and take control of your fuel by sourcing from your region. When you need to augment your supply, import.

The search for better fuel starts with better plants

There is a new player on the local scene for biofuels - a plant called camelina. Camelina is part of the brassicaceae family along with canola, whose oil SeQuential uses in biodiesel production. Other more familiar brassicaceae are cabbage and turnips.

Camelina has been more or less overlooked in this region (with the exception of Montana) but its value as a rotational crop is starting to be realized. Rotational crops are used to break pest cycles and to revitalize soil that has only seen one crop grown on it season after season. Breaking pest cycles means that fewer pesticides have to be used, which is better for the health of farmers, laborers and the rest of us. This also decreases costs, as taken from the Eastern Oregonian:

... research shows [camelina] is well suited to conditions in the Pacific Northwest, requires low inputs of water and nutrients, and reduces disease, insect and weed pressure in wheat fields planted the following year.

"We are all painfully aware of the recent cost increases of inputs to grow conventional crops," he said, noting the cost of glyphosate, the main ingredient in products such as Round-Up, for example, increased significantly recently.

"If you are concerned about these costs, you should look at a crop like camelina," Johnson said. 'It can provide a net return equal to spring wheat without the high initial outlay of pesticides and a far lower need for nitrogen and we can harvest in July."

Camelina, just like canola, produces seeds that have a high oil content. These seeds get crushed by a crusher (Willamette Biomass Processors for example) that squeezes out the oil, which is turned into cleaner-burning biodiesel. The leftover crushed seed is a meal that goes to livestock as feed. I don't know what livestock think about camelina meal, but I know cows love canola meal - it was once described to me as 'cattle crack'.

So why am I excited about camelina? Both camelina and canola are rotational oilseed crops that don't require much water or fertilizer and canola actually has a higher output of oil per acre. More oil = more biodiesel, but because camelina is better on the land and can be grown on marginal soil, it pulls ahead as a better choice in my book.

The price of biodiesel

Fellow Biodiesel Drivers ::

We have all noticed the increase in fuel prices over the last six months. During this period, SeQuential and our network of distributors have not changed margins on biodiesel, meaning that these price increases are from the increased costs for producing biodiesel.

About 40% of the biodiesel SeQuential distributes comes from recycled cooking oil and most of the rest comes from soybean oil grown in the Midwest. This will continue to be the case in the short term, as local production from recycled oil increases; as Oregon production of oilseed crops increases (currently about 10% of our supply); and as technology companies develop alternative feedstocks, such as algae. As demand for soybean oil has increased of late, so has the price. In addition, a major ingredient in biodiesel production is methanol, which increased in price by about 300% since September 2007. We will do everything we can to get price relief.

We understand that these price increases are hard on your wallet, so we want to take a moment to say that we appreciate your dedication to and support of biofuels. We are all in this together, and together, we are growing a renewable fuels industry and bringing better fuel options to Oregon.

Register Guard Opinion Piece

The Register Guard just published an opinion piece by Ian Hill, a co-founder of SeQuential, in regards to recent articles about biofuels:

Oregon’s lower carbon biofuel industry

by Ian Hill

In response to recent articles claiming that the use of biofuel leads to increases in global warming, we would like to point out that not all biofuels are crated equal. The biodiesel and ethanol sold through our SeQuential retail station here in Eugene is some of the most sustainably-produced fuel currently available in the country.

The SeQuential-Pacific Biodiesel (SQPB) production plant in Salem uses recycled cooking oil from sources such as Kettle Foods, Burgerville etc. A small but growing percentage of the SQPB facility uses Oregon-grown canola oil that is grown as a rotational crop with wheat. Canola is typically grown one year in four to enhance soil quality, breaks up pest cycles and increases wheat yields. Other oilseed crops that can be grown on land not suitable for food production or in rotation with food crops are being currently researched by OSU.

It is important to note that the SQPB facility’s technology can efficiently produce quality biodiesel from a wide range of vegetable oils. This gives SQPB the ability to adapt to new sources of oil as they develop, such as certain types of algae which are the most efficient photo-synthetic producer of oil on the planet and can be grown using agricultural & municipal waste streams.

The majority of the ethanol that is sold through our retail station is sourced from Pacific Ethanol’s facility located in Boardman OR. This facility does use corn as its primary feedstock for producing ethanol. What makes this facility different is that they use ~30% less energy then most contemporary ethanol production facilities. They do this by selling most of their wet distiller grains (or WDGS the main by product of ethanol production) directly into a local livestock feed market.

Another item of interest about Pacific’s Boardman facility is that they recently received a Federal Department of Energy grant to build a pilot scale cellulose to ethanol production facility. This facility will focus on technology allowing the production of ethanol from local feed stocks such as wheat straw, corn stover & wood chips.

On a County level, there are a number of research projects underway that are looking at a variety of renewable energy sources. Such as anaerobic digestion utilizing food waste for energy production and pyrolysis technology for converting carbon based waste material into different forms of usable energy including liquid forms like butanol (a gasoline replacement).

These examples of Oregon-made biofuels are derived from raw materials that do not compete with food-producing acres. As a result, these biofuels reduce life cycle carbon emissions by 40 to 80 percent compared to standard petroleum-based fuels.

Oregon (and the Pacific Northwest) leads the nation with our use of high blends of biodiesel, specifically B99 (99.9% biodiesel). Oregon & Washington have the largest markets in the country for retail biodiesel. Government & business fleets in Oregon such as the City of Eugene, the City of Portland, Rexius, Sanipac, LTD and Tri-Met to name a few have proven that they are willing to vote with their fuel budgets to support Oregon made biofuel. This kind of support is critical to building a better, localized biofuel industry. From our municipal governments, to businesses with fleets, to the individual consumer the Northwest is leading the way in the development of a localized biofuel industry.

The work to build a localized, cleaner, sustainable energy economy is an important incremental step, not an overnight miracle. Our company is named SeQuential for this very reason. There is no single panacea to our current energy crisis. Rather we are faced with a diversity of solutions that must be pursued simultaneously. Conservation taking the form of higher efficiency diesel & gasoline vehicles, increasing the use of electric vehicles, greater use of public transit systems, riding bikes and walking are all solutions that must also be employed.

As a company we are committed to helping build an Oregon based, lower carbon biofuel industry that is cleaner burning and that supports our local economy. SeQuential can only do this in partnership with our customers.

Ian Hill is a Co-Founder of SeQuential Biofuels, an Oregon-based retail biofuels company that provides biofuel blends for every vehicle.

The daily commute

We all have to work, be it in an office, a service job, or caring for the family and getting around requires some sort of transportation. There are many ways to get around; driving, biking, busing, etc., all of which have their own trade offs in terms of convenience and emissions.

Driving can be the most convenient way of getting around (baring traffic jams), but out of all of the alternatives, driving weighs in at the high end of emissions. There are, of course, many jobs and situations where driving is essential, so it is fortunate that cleaner-burning biofuel is available!

On a per-person basis, the more people you can get into a car, the better. The average car, over the course of a year, emits about 12,100 pounds of carbon dioxide (calculate your CO2 emissions here - for gas burning cars using petroleum only). Carpooling can cut this number down significantly - one person per car emits 12,100 pounds of CO2 per person. Four people in that car would only emit about 3,025 pounds of CO2 per person. Talk to your co-workers and see if you can organize a carpool!

Speaking of emissions per person, riding the bus (or light rail) is another great option with most buses fitting 40+ people on board. The tradeoff is that buses are on a fixed schedule and have fixed routes. That said, bus routes go along major arterials and chances are that there is a bus heading to where you need to go. If you factor in the time it takes to find a parking spot, buses can be faster than driving. Plus, most public buses use biofuels!

I am an avid bicyclist, so I love having the opportunity to ride into work. Having put in substantial hours driving for work in the past (pizza delivery), I realize how lucky I am to live close to work (4 miles) and to drive so infrequently. Riding a bike is a non-polluting way to get around and is good exercise to boot! Biking is slower than any of the other options (and there is always the chance of getting caught out in the rain), but since it is so clean, it is a winner in my book.

Carshares like Zipcar (who recently acquired Flexcar) are another great option - even if you mainly use an alternative to driving, there are sometimes where you just need a car. Being able to rent a car for a few hours works great for a lot of people, but it does require some planning for your reservation.

Here at SeQuential, almost all of us own cars, but we don't always use them. Having our office be in downtown Portland means there are lots of transportation alternatives that we are very lucky to have. On the average day, these are the main ways SeQuential's administrative staff get to work:

• Alan, retail manager: biodiesel car
• Bo, development: bus, bike
  
• Ciara, retail manager: biodiesel car
• Carrie, accounting: bus, bike
  
• Dave, CEO: bike, running
  
• Gavin, sales: bus, biodiesel car
• Gloria, accounting: walking, ethanol car
  
• Ian, founder: bus, walking, biodiesel car
• Sasha, marketing: bike
• Sue, marketing: bike
• Tomas, founder: bus, biodiesel car
  
• Tyson, founder: bus, biodiesel car
• Will, marketing: bus
  

Not all biofuels are made the same

(This is a quick response to the New York Times article that came out today http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/08/science/earth/08wbiofuels.htm)

As you know, not all biofuels are made the same; cutting down the rainforest to grow biofuel crops is a terrible idea. Growing crops locally has been proven thru many studies to create lowered emissions and a net gain of energy over the life cycle of the fuel. Life cycle assessments follow a product from "cradle to grave" and all the inputs in between; for biofuels, this would be taking everything from planting, to fertilizing, harvesting, transport, conversion, distribution and combustion, into consideration.

Soybean-based biodiesel (grown in the US) has a lifecycle impact of lowering carbon dioxide emissions by 78% as compared to petroleum diesel. (http://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/fy98/24089.pdf)

SeQuential has always relied upon government laboratory research; we feel it is the least biased source we can find. If you want to do some further reading, here is a page with a whole bunch of links to documents that support the benefits of biofuels: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/biomass/publications.html.

Most studies are done with Midwest grown soybean based biodiesel. The SeQuential-Pacific plant in Salem primarily makes biodiesel out of used cooking oil, adding the element of recycling into the mix. I have not seen any studies on how many times better this makes the environmental impact, but I imagine it is many-fold.

The ever fluctuating price of fuel

Drive by almost any gas station and you'll see one common link - they advertise the price of their fuel in big numbers right out front.

With no other product are people as price sensitive. Back before I knew I had a choice, I would fill my car with the cheapest gas I could find, or would choose a station that was a penny less than its neighbor. I doubt I ever saved more than a dollar on any one transaction, but that was important to me.

Nowadays, because the fuel I buy is cleaner burning, the price is much less important. To me, just being able to use cleaner burning makes paying more worth it. I drive a diesel Jetta TDI and use biodiesel (B20 BLEND for the winter, B99 BIODIESEL in the summer). (In case you are wondering, I pay the retail price for my fuel - the SeQuential employee discount is only valid at the Eugene biofuel station and I live in Portland).

Recently the price of biodiesel has been increasing and has prompted many email questions. For those of you who are wondering, here is a breakdown of the price increases from the SQ Newsletter January 2008:

Biodiesel Price Increases

As many of you are aware the price for biodiesel at the pump has been increasing. We have been working diligently to keep costs down, however certain areas are out of our control. As a small local company that was built by our loyal customers, one of our goals is to be as transparent and open as possible. In an effort to keep everyone informed of the industry trends we would like to address some of the causes of this price increase.

1 – METHANOL: The cost of methanol has gone up over 300% since September 2007. Methanol is a key ingredient in biodiesel production and this increase affects not just the SeQuential-Pacific Biodiesel plant in Salem but also biodiesel producers throughout the country. Two of the world’s largest methanol plants experienced unplanned outages due to mechanical and technical production problems which caused this spike in prices. Global supply forecasts are expecting for prices to begin falling by early spring

2 – SOYBEANS - The most common feedstock for biodiesel in the United States is soybean oil and soybean oil prices have increased over $0.90 since September. The SeQuential-Pacific Biodiesel plant in Salem has a capacity of one million gallons per year and primarily uses used cooking oil or Oregon-grown canola. The demand for biodiesel well exceeds capacity and we are importing soy based biodiesel, which is affecting the price at the pump. The SeQuential-Pacific facility is currently under expansion to five million gallons per year.

We appreciate your commitment to locally sourced, cleaner-burning biofuels. We are doing everything we can to keep prices down and to continue offering you a choice in your fueling needs.

It is important to note that SeQuential only owns one station, the solar-powered biofuel station in Eugene; SeQuential can not set prices at any other locations or with distributors. (See all locations and distributors).

If you find the price of biodiesel is too high for you, you can mitigate this is by using biodiesel / petroleum diesel blends. Just fill up partly with petroleum diesel and then top off with biodiesel - the fuels will mix in your tank and it can save you some money. Also, driving less cuts down on fuel costs - try to combine errands into one trip, carpool and when able, take public transportation or ride your bike!

Bang for the buck or personal connection?

The other day I took a call from a small bookstore, asking for one of us to give a presentation on biofuels. After looking at schedules and the hours people will be putting in at the Good Earth Home and Garden show this weekend, I turned the bookstore down; I haven't been able to stop thinking about this since.

Recently, I have been pushing to get more 'bang for the buck' out of events - with limited time and resources, it makes more sense to talk to 500 people at a trade show instead of 15 at a bookstore. That said, turning the bookstore down felt wrong. After all, these people wanted to learn about biofuels!

Traditionally, SeQuential has done a ton of educational events, from tabling at the Muddy Boot Festival, to having a full tradeshow setups, to giving small talks at various Rotary chapters. I personally have put in hours and hours at events (as have many of us at SQ) and really appreciate the value of face-to-face contact; it gets more across that a pamphlet ever will.

When it is all boiled down, the hard truth is that there are only so many hours in the day; there are more opportunities to present than we have time to. To make the largest impact as possible on greenhouse gases, energy security and local economies, you have to educate as many people as you can on the simple fact that they have the choice to use a cleaner burning fuel.

This is no criticism against smaller events - I would wholeheartedly prefer to be at them, but it just reflects the situation the world is in and the potential for communities to make change on a global scale. By talking to 500 people at a home show, I feel SQ can help make a bigger impact, faster. Even though the connection isn't as deep, the education component is strong enough to drive change.

Count your victories, not your problems.

One of the downsides of the information age is that we have access to a ton of troubling news from every corner of the globe - everything from cloned food (label it please) to melting glacial ice (less personal but equally ominous), to war, political scandals, etc. In light of all this, it can be hard to stay positive.

About a month ago I took a phone call on the main SeQuential line from a young woman who was feeling buried by all the negative news of the world - she felt there was nothing she could do to solve all the problems of the world, so why should she even bother trying? We talked about how there is no silver bullet that will fix everything and how by taking small steps and leading by example, large ripples can be created that eventually create real, tangible results.

One such of these ripples tuned into a wave yesterday as the Oregon Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) started phasing in, just one part of the 2007 Biofuel Bill. This bill passed thanks to the efforts of a small coalition of non-profits, private business, industry organizations and dedicated individuals, not to mention government leadership. This bill is creating a huge positive impact on such daunting issues as local economic strength, energy security and climate change.

In 1992, Portland and other cities around the country were mandated by the EPA to use gasoline blended with ethanol to improve air quality during winter months. As of Tuesday, nine Oregon counties are now mandated by the Oregon RFS to use gasoline with 10% ethanol year round. Another nine counties are shifting over April 15; the rest of the state on September 16.

The impact of this is huge. Ethanol is cleaner-burning and the RFS was kicked into effect by Pacific Ethanol's in-state ethanol production, moving Oregon one step closer to energy independence.

In 2006, Oregon used 3,571,000 gallons per day of gasoline. Once the whole state is switched over, the ethanol RFS will, on an annual basis, approximately:

• Reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 198,735,000 tons (CO2 is a greenhouse gas)
  
• Avoid the use of 95,149,000 gallons of petroleum fuel (scaled for the lower BTU content in ethanol

There is also a portion of the RFS for blending biodiesel in with petroleum diesel; this will go into effect when in-state production reaches the five million gallon per year mark. (The SeQuential-Pacific Biodiesel plant in Salem is currently under expansion from one to five million gallons per year.)

The Oregon RFS timeline for blending ethanol in with gasoline:

• January 15th: Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Yamhill, Polk and Marion counties.
  
• April 15th: Linn, Lane, Benton, Lincoln, Douglas, Coos, Jackson, Josephine, and Curry counties.
  
• September 16th: all remaining counties.

SeQuential and Oregon Lottery TV ad

The Oregon Economic and Community Development Department along with the US EPA, Lane County and SeQuential, helped remediate the contaminated soil (known as a brownfield) left behind by the previous tenant at the now SeQuential station in Eugene.

In recognition of these efforts, the Oregon Lottery put together this ad:

Product Offerings: Values vs Customer Demand

Whenever I go back to Buffalo to visit family I take at least one trip to a Wegmans, a grocery store chain of 71 stores on the east coast. (Lets face it - you can't get real rye bread in Oregon.) Wegmans is kind of like Safeway, but with a strong and extensive pre-prepared food section and a focus on consumer health.

Wegmans is nothing close to a New Seasons or Whole Foods (although they were given an Ethics Award), so I was surprised when I read that they are no longer selling cigarettes or tobacco products. Wegmans does have a track record of enacting food safety policies (Belize farmed shrimp) but organic only gets a small mention.

This ban on tobacco is noteworthy because Wegmans is a large, established grocery chain and based on their consumer health values, bottom line be damned, they are eliminating an entire product category.

The potential impact of Wegmans' decision:

• Wegmans reinforces their values surrounding consumer health, creating more trust from their consumer base.
• Tobacco using consumers will have to change their purchasing habits to buy tobacco elsewhere, which might make Wegmans loose total sales volume.
• Although convenience stores sell more tobacco products than grocery stores, the loss of the category will still effect Wegmans' bottom line.
  

To me, improving our customer's lives is an amazing goal; it is the reason every one of SeQuential's fuel products are cleaner-burning, and there is such a focus on fuel for every vehicle, not just for hard-core biodiesel users. Our focus is inclusive - we will meet consumers at the level they want to engage, from 2007 Dodge Caravan E10 gasoline users to '78 Mercedes B99 BIODIESEL users.

All this raises some questions about our own product selection:

• Does our inclusive approach mean that we should continue to offer the "better choice" additive-free tobacco products, or should we eliminate tobacco altogether?
  
• Would our customer's lives change for the better if we stopped carrying tobacco or would we be forcing our customers to buy potentially additives-laden products elsewhere?
  
• If we know something is unhealthy, should we walk the high road and say, "we will not enable you to live an unhealthy lifestyle"? If so, where do we draw the line on what is "healthy"? (High fructose corn-syrup, GMO, trans-fat, processed foods, plastic packaging, etc.) Could we find adequate substitutes for the products our customers want, but still meet all our standards?

What to do with conflicting information (Food Vs. Fuel)

We all have seen lots of articles recently stating how corn ethanol is making the price of food go up.
For the purpose of this blog, I will use two articles that directly conflict each other. One, written by Forbes, says corn-based ethanol is directly causing food prices to rise. The other, written by informa economics, states that corn-based ethanol has a very small impact on food prices.

We all know that there are better feedstocks to use besides corn for ethanol production - feedstocks that takes less energy to grow and create more ethanol per acre, but that doesn't mean that corn is a bad choice for right now. While everything is connected and the rise in food costs has something to do with rising ethanol demand, we shouldn't be quick to demonize the fuel and look to some basic facts like food surplus, exports and production costs (farmers have to pass high diesel costs on to their customers, just like any delivery company).


Ethanol driving up food prices is largely presented as fact. To counter this, an ethanol trade group, the Renewable Fuels Foundation, commissioned Informa economics to do a study based on statistical analysis of the Consumer Price Index to see what is actually happening. We can, of course, assume that the Informa report is biased, but it provides a much more holistic view of the issue as it breaks down what goes into a bushel. Here is what each had to say about the issue:

The boom in ethanol, a heavily subsidized replacement for oil... is behind the doubling of corn prices over the past 15 months and the knockon effect on basic foods from milk to bread. - Forbes

...the statistical evidence does not support a conclusion that the growth in the ethanol industry is driving consumer food prices higher... only 4% of the change in the food CPI is “explained” by fluctuations in nearby corn futures prices. Even when the corn price is lagged to allow for the effects to work their way through the food supply chain, the statistical results do not improve. - informa economics

So... lets see what industry experts say on surplus and export (we don't need an industry expert to tell us that gas prices have gone up). World-Grain:

U.S. corn exports are projected to reach a record 62 million tons in trade year 2007-08, up 2 million tons this month. The U.S. marketing year is also a record at 2.45 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels. According to U.S. Census data, October 2007 corn exports were up almost 20% over those of the previous year. The report also indicated that feed grain supplies for 2007-08 are unchanged from November and are up 55.3 million tonnes from 2006-07.

So, US production and exports are up, suggesting that there is a strong market abroad for American-grown corn. Feed grain stocks are steady or going up, suggesting feed (and therefore meat prices) would be unchanged as well. Ranchers are reporting raised costs, up to 20%, which I am suspicious of, given that there is not a decrease in supply. This means that either there is some price gouging and blame shifting, or farmers are using higher-value feed (a bi-product of ethanol production).

Bottom line: everything is connected, don't be reactionary and quick to pass judgment, take everything you read with a grain of salt and check references.

There Is No Easy Answer

First off - congrats to Team SQ on winning the Governor's Gold Award for small business - now, lets get back to work!

Sometimes it can be hard to see through the green bubble that covers certain Oregon and NW cities and identify national trends. There is certainly greening that is happening at the local level and with large players like Walmart who are under scrutiny from every angle. Now it seems the mid-level of the US is greening as well. As reported by the Environmental Leader, Arby's is installing solar water heaters at 33 locations in North Carolina. To be fair, one of Arby's justifications is that it will save them $12k a year on their natural gas bill, but they also mention that they are reducing CO2 as well.

Solar water heaters that not only save money, but decrease a building's carbon footprint as well, are a no-brainer. Unfortunately, not everything is that clearcut and everything has a trade off - like I've said time and time again, there is no silver bullet.


Nalgene bottles, once heralded as the reusable, indestructible and non-chemical-leaching, are now being banned at a Canadian outdoor store due to questions on a chemical used in the plastic. This may not come as a complete surprise - many people have developed an overall suspicion of all plastics (I recently bought and am very happy with a Sigg thermos).


On the food front, some researchers at UC:Davis have started to do some research on the carbon impact of locally-grown food vs centrally-grown food. As a company, we of course have a local bias, but there are some very valid questions raised by the article based on economies of scale.

They use the example of a strawberry, grown in either: a large scale farm in California or a small scale farm locally. On a per-strawberry basis, the impact of transportation, fertilizer, labor, etc. has the potential to be lower on the large scale farm, due to the sheer quantity of strawberries they can produce, even when transporting them thousands of miles. The research isn't done, but it will be interesting to see what the answer is.


Close to home, wave power is getting some press. "Free energy", like solar, geothermal and wind, comes from global forces that are not tied to human activities (like biofuels are).
The big question surrounding all these energy alternatives are: what is the unintended impact on natural systems and are they a worth-while alternative?

• Will wave power disrupt sea life?
• How much energy does it take to produce the solar panels?
• How many birds and bats get chopped up by wind turbines?

Every new technology has drawbacks; you can't have a silver bullet without having to worry about gun control. At least we can be sure of one thing: is renewable alternative energy overall better than conventional fossil fuels like coal and natural gas? Yes.

Statistics and Eye Candy

The Environmental Leader daily had a good summary of some market research that was done to identify consumer's perceptions on "green" terms like "energy conservation, energy efficiency, demand response, smart energy, and clean energy".

Below are some highlights of adjectives that tested well with the parent word, with positives (>50% agree) in black, negatives (>30% agree) in red.

Energy efficiency

• easy to use
• forward looking
• fun
• futuristic
• reliable
• smart
• valuable

Smart Energy

• forward looking
• fun
• futuristic
• reliable
• smart
• valuable
• visionary
  

Clean Energy

• expensive
• forward looking
• fun
• futuristic
• reliable
• smart
• valuable
• visionary

Demand Creation

• annoying
• authoritative
• boring
• expensive
• old fashioned
  
• unhelpful
• unpopular

It is good to note that "smart energy" and "energy efficiency" have no strong negatives associated with them and that "fun" is present in most of these lists. "Clean energy", is perceived to be expensive and "demand creation" is just plain negative.



In lighter news, Verdier is keeping the dream alive with a next generation, solar-powered Westfalia. Take 60's ideals and merge them with high-technology and you get a beautiful $69,000 camper.

As pretty as it is, it seems they haven't actually built one as their site is mainly comprised of computer-graphics; before sinking that much cash into something I know I'd like a generation or two on the road so any bugs could be worked out.

Feedstock and Scaling

The Oregonian wrote a pretty good article on Imperium on Tuesday touching some of the larger questions about biodiesel surrounding scale. The US uses a lot of fuel; biodiesel is better, but damn you have to grow a lot of oil producing crops for it.

Using a recycled product, as we all know, is great for biodiesel production but there is a very limited supply of it. Originally, Imperium was going to lean heavily on palm oil for feedstock, but due to negative publicity, backtracked and now are primarily using Canadian Canola. While I was under the impression that Imperium wasn't going to be using any palm oil, it seems otherwise:

'Tobias says the company will buy only palm oil that is sustainably produced. Imperium is a founding member of an international roundtable that's trying to come up with the appropriate criteria, but has struggled to do so.'

I have no idea what could be considered "sustainable palm"... in fact, I'm pretty sure I have no idea what would be considered "sustainable anything", but that is another discussion entirely.

A little perspective on market scale

'Even Imperium's 100-million-gallon plant will make just a tiny dent in U.S. diesel use, which totaled 64 billion gallons in 2006.'

Running at full capacity and offtake, Imperium's facility will offset 0.64% of the US's diesel use. If using soy exclusively, the crops for Imperium's plant would take up 'an area of 2.5 million acres, or about 68% of the Willamette Valley'. The environmental impact of such a venture would undoubtedly be significant; mono-cultures are never good for the surrounding ecosystem, fertilizer, pesticides, water, etc.

As a comparison, soy produces about 50 gallons of oil per acre, Canola produces about 100 and algae-based biodiesel is projected to create 250 times more gallons of oil per acre than soy [12,500 gallons per acre] according to the dubious Wikipedia.

It is obvious that biofuels are better, but is also obvious that if we don't pay attention to where our biofuels come from and how they are produced, we could wind up with a whole new set of issues. It would benefit us all to also support conservation and increased fuel economy: 50% increased fuel economy translates to 50% less fuel used. Reduced fuel consumption will help everything, including increase the percentage of biofuels that are being used.

Grease is gold; Ethanol market saturated

Over the weekend there was an Oregonian article on "Grease Wars", outlining the market shift of used cooking oil being waste to wanted. SeQuential-Pacific got a few mentions and Tyson got a quote.

It is a little off topic, but there is one snippet in the article that is sure to result in some sort of legal action:

"I have so much oil," said David MacKay, owner of a Northeast Portland fish house, Halibut's. "If they don't take it, I'll dump it on the grass."

In light of the falling ethanol market, Pacific Ethanol is losing some of their biggest investors, the Gates Investment Fund. The falling ethanol market isn't coming as much of a surprise; I'm not entirely sure why the big money is pulling out of functioning plants.

Fuel has an inelastic demand curve - we use a lot of it and there is a ceiling to how much we can use. If too much is produced, we won't be able to use it all.

There was so much buzz around ethanol that everyone with a spare $10m started invested in plants. Industry insiders knew that at some point there was going to be too much supply and some of these plants opening wouldn't be able to get off-take agreements and therefore go belly up.

The only potential negative of all of this is if it stifles cellulosic ethanol research, much like cheap oil in the early nineties stifled algae-BIODIESEL research.

Net effect - once again supply-demand economics wins the day and more alternative fuel is available. Also once again, there are no silver bullets to kill the looming werewolf of all our problems and people are writing reactionary news articles.